The decision by the U.S. to “allow” India to import Russian oil for a period of 30 days will help mitigate the spike in the price of oil and delays in oil shipments to import-dependent India, according to analysts.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an early morning post on X on Friday (March 6, 2026), said that the U.S. was granting India this 30-day reprieve to “alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage”.
This comes at a time when the Indian government has made assurances that India has adequate amounts of crude oil, petrol and diesel in reserve. According to sources, India currently has 25 days of crude oil in reserve, and 25 days each of petrol and diesel each.
This also follows a relatively sustained period where India has been cutting back on its Russian oil imports and increasing oil imports from the U.S.
“To enable oil to keep flowing into the global market, the Treasury Department is issuing a temporary 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil,” Mr. Bessent posted on X. “This deliberately short-term measure will not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government as it only authorises transactions involving oil already stranded at sea.”
The Indian National Congress cited this post and attacked the Modi government, saying that the Government of India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has led India to a point where the “United States is now deciding where India can buy oil from and where it cannot”.
Current status on Russian imports
Notably, on February 6, U.S. President Donald Trump lowered tariffs on Indian imports from 50% to 25% by removing the 25% penal tariffs he had imposed in August 2025 linked to India’s purchase of Russian oil.
He said this relaxation was because “India has committed to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil, [and] has represented that it will purchase United States energy products from the United States”.
A previous analysis by The Hindu of the latest preliminary data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry shows that India imported $1.98 billion worth of crude oil from Russia in January 2026, the month before India and the U.S. issued a joint statement about an interim trade agreement between the two countries. This was also the lowest in 44 months.
As a result of this, Russia’s share in Indian oil imports fell to 19.3% in January 2026, the lowest since December 2022. In comparison, Russia’s share was 27.5% two months earlier, and 33% in May 2025.
The need for Russian oil
“Considering more than 55% of India’s oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, elevated price and delays will stretch India’s oil bill ($11.5bn/month) unless India ramps up imports from Russia (19% currently versus 43% in July 2024),” JM Financial Services said in a note.
It added that, in the “extreme” scenario of Brent crude prices breaching the $90 per barrel mark, India’s current account deficit (CAD) could stretch to 1.4% of GDP, and the rupee could depreciate to ₹95 per U.S. dollar.
“However, in such a scenario, imports of Russian fuel will take centre stage,” it added.
Moody’s also pointed out that India stands out among the large Asian economies that rely on crude and LNG from West Asia due to its high share of West Asian crude among total oil imports, and pressure from the US to cut its energy imports from Russia.
“Costly energy imports would weaken the rupee, raise inflation, worsen the current account balance and complicate monetary policy as well as fiscal management if they lead to expanded subsidies to help offset the economic shock,” Moody’s said.
Buying more from the U.S.
In his post, Mr. Bessent further said that “India is an essential partner of the United States”, and that the U.S. anticipates that India will “ramp up” purchases of U.S. oil.
“This stop-gap measure will alleviate pressure caused by Iran’s attempt to take global energy hostage,” Mr. Bessent said.
The data shows that India has been increasing its imports from the U.S. over the last few months. That is, India imported $11.6 billion worth of crude oil from the U.S. in the period April 2025 to January 2026, which is 32% higher than in the same period of the previous financial year.
As a result, the U.S.’ share in India’s oil imports grew to 8% in the period April 2025 to January 2026 from 5.7% in the same period of the previous financial year.
Congress takes aim at government
“The Government of India under Narendra Modi has led the country to a situation where the United States is now deciding where India can buy oil from and where it cannot,” the Congress said in a post on X. “This decision is not being made by Prime Minister Modi, nor by the Indian government. Today, citizens of the country are asking: who is the United States to ‘permit’ India to buy oil?”
The post went on to assert that “we [India] are not slaves to any nation” and are a sovereign and independent country.
“But Narendra Modi cannot ask this question to the United States, because he is completely compromised and has mortgaged the country to American interests,” the post added.
Published – March 06, 2026 11:13 am IST
